The size of their respective GDPs notwithstanding, these stats indicate the direction in which the Russia Ukraine War will impact USA & Russia.
That reminds us of the Haliotis dilemma of the Devil and Deep Sea catch for Ukraine.
The Black Sea occupation seems the logic pipeline.
The days between 8th and 9th Round :
India changes the political status of J&K by August, 2019, with Ladakh now becoming a Union Territory. This’s not internal affairs but have global ramification and the surrounding neighbours taken off-guard. The ‘standoff’ started between April and May, 2020, followed by the Galwan skirmish in June, with 20 Indian soldiers dead and China refusing to give an official figure with Indian estimates at anywhere between 40-45 now revealed by TASS without actually giving out the source of information. But earlier several media estimates quoting some or other US expert went with this number on the Chinese side to 100 casualties. By August, 2020, India made it clear that this’ll be a long haul though earlier reports suggested disengagement at certain specific friction areas with a focus being brought on the Fingers and without the winter on-set being any factor for urgency in its move.
By then, it became clear that the escalation by the Chinese were an outcome of the political developments in the Kashmir and targeted towards the Darbuk – Shyok – DBO Road building exercise and to stall its progress, where in fact the Chinese continued their infra developments on the other side. These theories are uniformly accepted by several think tanks across the World not limited to the region.
On the sidelines, the Border Roads Organisation engaged 12000 workers for completing infrastructure in the Sino Borders. It is known that there is no particular demarcated ‘Line of Actual Control’, hence the Chinese adopt the ‘Hold the line’ tactic not by its usual patrol teams but a larger contingent.
It evolved that these changes in the border did not much impact the trade between the countries, as was predicted by the usual press corps. A symbolic impact was created by the Indian Govt. by banning certain apps.
The WMCC :
The Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC ) was set up during 2012 as a Joint Secretary level institutional mechanism for exchange of information and for cooperation. Several level of talks were held and both sides held their positions with only certain minor symbolic retreats here and there. After the eighth round of talks, the Chinese understanding got clearer that there’s no headway at the Ladakh front, now shifted focus to Sikkim region.
On January, 20th, 2021, the Chinese intruded at Naku La, Sikkim. By now, the Indian Army factored the Gusti style of fighting in hand combat which they perfected with their Galwan Kabbadi. The Chinese army sustained 34 injured soldiers and only 4 Indian soldiers were injured, if such number comparison have any significance at all. Pertinently, even on this occasion no guns were fired but was only hand to hand combat. It has not been reported as to what was the cause for the minor skirmish and what was the goal for the Chinese, but was quickly resolved by Commander level talks. If it is to be considered that this was a limited attempt to change the status quo and test the Indian preparedness, the Chinese attempt were evidently foiled with bare hands. This was particularly significant being in the peak of winter temperatures at the Northern Sikkim border.
The incident was reported in the Indian press only after five days. But the significance of the date of the event was that this skirmish followed the conclusion of Ninth round of WMCC talks on 19th of January, 2021.
The Palm and Five Fingers :
The Palm and Five Fingers strategy was developed by the Chinese, spoken by Mao Zedong as early as 1940, which considers Tibet as China’s Right hand palm and Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh as it’s five fingers. China took it upon itself as a right to liberate these regions. If we are to consider how in history India exercised its hegemony over Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, three of these fingers, there need not be excitement in understanding the present situation.
India using the distrust created on the Chinese due to the COVID pandemic, made several course correction attempts. Evidently, the 255 km Darbuk – Shyok – DBO Road, will lead the Indian Army easy access to the Karakoram pass. With the CPEC benefits slowly dwindling, the heat between the Chinese and Pakis are increasing by the day. Thus, the finger strategy can be quickly cut off by effectively changing the strategy course. India spoke of conferring the Bharat Ratna on The Dalai Lama, the spiritual head of Tibet and thus keeping the Tibet question alive. India will slowly entrench itself also in Hong Kong and Taiwan, thus completing the spiral accidentally set up by the Chinese starting at Ladakh. This’s evident by the August, 2020, deployment of warships at Malacca Straits by the Indian Navy and with the US Navy also deploying its frigates and destroyers. The Chinese raised objections to such presence during one of their WMCC talks with no avail.
Disengagement has started in phases and we can expect a come-back by the Chinese once China temporarily settles with POTUS.
India’s Cyber Policy is still in its nascent stage. The Personal Data Protection Bill, 2019 was tabled in the Lok Sabha during December 2019. It has two principal functions, to provide protection of personal data and to establish an enforcement mechanism in the form of a Data Protection Authority. The present vanguard of the technology is with limited number of foreign players, leading to arguments critical of ‘Data Imperialism’ and ‘Data Colonialism’ versus ‘Data Sovereignty’. During 2018, Private companies invested into the opening of payment and settlement mechanism liberalisation with the Reserve Bank of India placing unfettered regulatory access over data with all the entities in the payment ecosystem. The regulatory mechanism was in the form of System Audit Report by CERT-IN empanelled auditors. This brought in the mandate of payment data localisation over these entities. Sparring ensued over Net-Neutrality and Data Colonialism bringing in a sticky wicket in all Trade Talks between India and USA at the pressure of the Data Kings at Silicon Valley notwithstanding Europe’s tryst with General Data Protection Regulation. The debate as well as the criticism is driven by the onerous task the enforcement agencies had to deal with data access stored abroad on one side and the economic interests on the other. Reliance Industries has been a strong votary of Data localisation with almost all the other foreign players like Facebook, Google and Microsoft opposing. Interestingly, payment service like Mastercard, entrants into payment field Facebook owned WhatsApp and Google Pay looking at the United Payments Interface exhibited willingness to oblige the 2018 Reserve Bank of India directive for data localisation. However, RBI informed the Supreme Court that Facebook owned WhatsApp does not comply with Data localisation directive and hence were not permitted to engage in payment services. This had a direct impact with US threatening H1-B Visa restrictions. Indian Government seems to have been led by its Data Sovereignty ideals rather than mere economical consideration[i]. The intangibility of Data poses huge legal implications in the form of ‘ownership’ as understood within the legal framework.
Reliance Industries Limited boasts a gross debt of Rs.3 lakh crore and a net debt of Rs.1.5 lakh crore. RIL during April, 2020 announced stake sale of its Jio arm of 10 % to Facebook for nearly Rs.50000 crores. Evidently, the Facebook stake sale is a debt reduction exercise. Yet raising of any money by this Company from the market is titled by media as ‘raising equity’. Similarly, RIL has also announced a Rights Issue to fetch Rs.50000 Crores which again will attend to only reducing its debt 6 times that size. Facebook already faces a closed door in its Chinese sojourn. Hence it has only India to expand its market presence.
Reliance Jio with 388 million subscribers base would look at leveraging the e-commerce space with the Retail arm Jio-mart. The span would now be Reliance Jio Mobile Platform + Facebook Whatsapp = Reliance Jio-mart and hence the market size converts to Reliance Jio 388 million subscriber base + Facebook 400 million customer base to be commercially exploited. It was only in February, 2020 WhatsApp payment services facility was permitted by the Reserve Bank of India and WhatsApp pay will be rolled out. This will be strategically important for Reliance to exploit the Jio-mart business with the last mile store connectivity platform. This can be looked at with the mandate of both NCPI and Data Localisation. Reliance right since 2016 harped on Data Localisation with its commercial values rather than any national interest on the principles of Data Sovereignty. Facebook owned WhatsApp seems to have agreed for Data Localisation only with the Reliance stake roadmap. The big hit will be at Amazon and Walmart (Flipkart) investments. Our personal data is the greatest challenge here. The Government has to only see to exploit this convergence for national gains with ‘Data as a National Asset’ argument. The counter argument could only be the ‘Surveillance State’. Clearly the market pushing the Governance scenario emerges. The Cambridge Analytica scandal model application with the above scenario will be the inevitable noise which both Reliance and Facebook will face in the shortest upcoming time. The citizens private data protection is the ultimate goal for the legislation. The Personal Data Protection Bill requires course correction to particularly deal with Reliance – Facebook type of convergence to pull the rug under our legs, notwithstanding the primacy on Data Localisation. The present Reliance Facebook marriage is to sweep them all in one go, the debt, the technology, the marketplace and the consumer. As it emerges, since 2018 every visit by every American Bureaucracy has to be looked at only with this prism. The forthcoming visitors will only be the Saudis with their Aramco investments hitting the shores with the Reliance Petro arm which Reliance will have no reason to refuse. Earlier in 2016, India banned the ingenuous Free-basics[ii] model which Facebook vehemently pressed to be brought when the critics argued of an unfair marketplace and being against Competition Law principles. Facebook is evidently piggybacking on Reliance Jio and will attempt again. This may again be viewed from the convergence angle of Reliance Jio-mart + Facebook Free Basic + WhatsApp causing virtually market dominance and extreme unfair product shelf. It’s not any more the Customers Choice who is already facing the targeted advertisement mechanism that Facebook and Google had placed them with. This convergence poses a huge threat to Net Neutrality and hence Democracy. The proof lies in the dying down of almost all the leading contenders in the mobile telephone service providers after Reliance Jio came into market. The tall man standing contender is only Airtel. Facebook and WhatsApp already poses a threat in the form of end-to-end encryption argument when the Government of India will have to demand for decryption keys and access to user data to trace origins of messages when demanded by the Law Enforcement agencies, notwithstanding the presence of data within the Country. We are to be reminded Facebook admitted to mis-use of its platform by Cambridge Analytica and such other attempts by various players during the American Elections. It’s not the market place which will face a threat but the entire gamut of OTT services on the Internet stream. TRAI rightly brought in the ‘Prohibition of Discriminatory Tariffs for Data Services Regulations’ guided by the principles of Net Neutrality.
We in India have a legal system with the Onus Probandi on the dominant party to act fairly particularly in a fiduciary relationship, where the proof of good faith in transactions in relation of active confidence is on the one who stands to the other in a position of active confidence. The phrase ‘active confidence’ indicates that the relationship between the parties must be such that one is bound to protect the interests of the other. The strength of the Competition Act is built on these legal principles that it prohibits anti-competitive agreements as well as abuse of dominant position. The key questions will be the politics of the Reliance-Facebook business that has to be predominantly dealt with by the Personal Data Protection Bill, 2019 during its Parliamentary deliberations rather than merely looking at the exploitation of the Technology and Commerce.
[i] https://www.epw.in/node/155932/pdf
[ii] Users access to certain apps and websites are free of charge for mobile data.
Post fact :
WHAT WE SEE AND WHAT WE DON’T GET
Reliance – Equity – Debt
South of the South-pole
It was pointed out earlier Reliance Industries was sitting on a gross debt of Rs.3 Lakh Crore and when Facebook placed their money, Reliance announced the Rights issue to fetch Rs.50000 crores. Lockdown notwithstanding Reliance Stocks soared high and investors queued up with their money into Reliance.
All speakers sounded equity investments queue on Reliance doors when in fact it was pointed out all this money was to cover only debt. The contention was Reliance Facebook marriage was to sweep the debt, the technology, the marketplace and the consumer.
RIL now has declared to have become NET debt free. For you and I this means whatever has been borrowed by RIL has been repaid or in line for repayment.
The Rotation & Revolution of Earth makes the Poles an imaginary idea.
Now it makes no sense if this’s Debt or Equity Investments for all those loud speakers which made the individual in you to invest. The intellectual argument is the loud speakers are not the ones to be stoned. You don’t kill the bird.
But the question is does the Intellectual also have Intellectual Honesty to decipher and spread out the magnetic NORTH and SOUTH so much so EQUITY and DEBT.
You don’t need understanding of fourth dimension of space to understand this. Kill the bird now.
The Indian family driven conservative investment mindset led to Western and Chinese investors having dominant role in the Indian start-up space.
The last decade has seen heavy investments from Chinese companies into India, reaching $8 Billion as of Dec, 2019. Chinese tech investors have put an estimated $4 billion into Indian start-ups.
According to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the majority of FDI inflow from China happened over the last five years ($1.81 billion),
Global giants like Sequoia (U.S.), Softbank (Japan) and Naspers (South Africa) back virtually every large Indian start-up ending up with literally all start-ups worth over $1 billion in India being foreign-funded. Evidently, 18 of the 30 Indian unicorns have a Chinese investor. India’s 30 Indian unicorns (start-ups with valuation of over $1 billion) have a Chinese investor and rest are invisible assets in small sizes – rarely over $100 million. There are Five major investments (FDI) by Chinese companies, which exceed $100 million. Chinese investors seem to concentrate on e-commerce, fintech, media & social media, aggregation services and logistics.
China alarmingly invests through the powerful BAT companies (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent) into Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of Things and Fintech start-ups in India.
Paytm is reported to have incurred a loss of Rs 3,690 crore in 2019 and Flipkart Rs 3,837 crore over the year. The Huawei risks were earlier highlighted.
Over years with the growing suspicion towards Chinese Capital in US, China has now turned to look at emerging markets like India.
China merely replicated its start-up models in India like Flipkart : JD.com; Zomato : Meituan Dianping; Ola : Didi Chuxin, et. al.
Under the CoVID scenario, the 1% stake purchase in HDFC by China’s Central Bank set off alarm bells within the Indian Govt. to quickly change the FDI Policy to prevent opportunistic or hostile takeovers.
While India joining the Start-up Corridor with 10 countries, we’ll have to necessarily hook on to these countries’ start-up ecosystems.
Slowly the west is raising to distinguish the Chinese Private Sector and Chinese State investments. As of September, 2019 when US and Japan have red-flagged Huawei in their 5G plans, India has not yet decided though it has permitted Huawei to participate in the 5G trials.
As of now, we are driven by perception of throwing all Chinese investments into the same basket of being Espionage investments, it’s time a mechanism is built to distinguish the merits of these investments in the start-up scenario effectively plugging leaks in respect of data or outcomes of these start-up tech investments versus fin-tech investments with controlling stakes for Chinese firms being restricted.
It is in this light, the present Reliance – Facebook alliance will have to be examined with Chinese strings attached.
Marceli Thomas (Indian national – Keralite) – travels to Colombo sometime between 20-09-2018 and 22-09-2018 on tourist Visa.
22-09-2018 – Thomas taken into custody on reaching the home of Namal Kumara at Warakapola (South-western Region)
Namal Kumara revealed that TID Head Nalaka de Silva had discussed with him plot to kill Sirisena & Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
27-09-2018 – the above News released to Press.
16-10-2018 – Media reported about Sirisena’s rant in his Cabinet Meeting about a plot to kill him involving R&AW.
17-10-2018 – Northern Avaa gang members trained by R&AW cadre. Thomas is identified as a Trained Indian Agent Rajitha Kumar and his Identification number is declared to press.
18-10-2018 to 20-10-2018 – Ranil Wickremasinghe visits New Delhi.
18-10-2018 – Sirisena ‘clarified’ that he did not mention involvement of any Indian Intel Agency – but admits discussion.
21-10-2018 – No incriminating evidence found in the phone of Namal Kumara, who now alleges Indian Agencies could have planted a bug – Kumara had earlier spoken about a coalition between Sirisena & Gotabaya – immediately denied by Lakthilaka – President’s Advisor. Alliance was first spoken about DIG Nalaka Silva.
21-10-2018 – Underworld figure Makandure Madush allegedly contracted for the plot and trained by Thomas, using a Sniper weapon. (there’s a 2015 Sirisena attempt to repatriate certain trained snipers from Maldivian custody – a separate story)
24-10-2018 – Thomas cites death threats by CID and alleges detention for 34 days (i.e. from 20-09-2018) – Indian embassy declares Thomas to be mentally unstable (standard ploy to disown – his visit to SL not explained – his identification number not denied).
26-10-2018 – Nalaka de Silva arrested over the plot.
Post fact :
According to Adayaalam Centre for Policy Research, Avaa Gang was set up by the Lankan Military Intelligence during the War.
16-02-2019 – Madankure Madush arrested in Dubai. The Lankan Police had no clues until revealed by the President – Sirisena himself to the Police Chief.
26-02-2019 – Swiftly the Sri Lankan’s Court acquitted Marceli Thomas since the CID could not produce any incriminating evidence. However, he was remanded for overstaying VISA.
21-05-2019 – DIG Nalaka de Silva former TID Chief was released on bail.
Over time the interference of China over Paracel, Spratly and Scarborough Shoals in the SCS and later over Senkaku Islands in the ECS region were highlighted.
US raised a dispute as to China’s right in International Law to regulate activities of foreign forces within China’s EEZ which has potential implications for the US in operating its naval forces globally.
China slowly built islands and expanded the existing ones and created bases gradually strengthening its position. It then started its game of cabbage policy to bring up multiple issues surrounding each of these disputed regions for gaining legitimacy in its actions.
The current treaty allies of US are Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Taiwan and the emerging partner countries are Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia.
As part of the Cabbage Policy, China developed its bases and stations anti-access/area-denial forces meant to keep foreign forces outside of the First Island Chain (originally an USSR doctrine). In case of an attack scenario, the forces in these bastions would engage the foreign naval powers and keep them away from mainland China and thus delaying the use of naval forces in case of a larger conflict.
China adopts daily manoeuvres of smaller options like control on fishing, Oil-Gas exploration, bring political pressure on countries in this region; ADIZ and posing Chinese presence in the Pacific region.
As during August 2018, India hasn’t got any particular evident counter plan for any these engagements except to make noise off and on, bringing into question the reliability of India by the regional powers and its effect ripples around the World. Even USA doesn’t seem to have any effective counter plan.
The legitimacy of foreign naval powers presence around the World thus is brought into question and China intends to have this opposing theory gain acceptance as part of its cabbage policy.
Interestingly, the legal position in India is in support of the Chinese standpoint, that not only can it regulate economic activity but also foreign military presence in the EEZ.
USN Admiral Philip Davidson, a PACOM nominee, recently acknowledged China’s domination over SCS.
India’s concern: The acknowledged fact remains that about $3.4 trillion worth of trade passes through SCS each year. India started its oil exploration with Vietnam through ONGC.
Defense Secretary of the US [equivalent to MOD in India] Ashton Carter landed in USS Theodore Roosevelt last November while the fleet was transiting SCS.
He again hopped on to the USS John C. Stennis during the 1st week of March, 2016, which was stationed in the SCS along with its CSG – fleet of 2 destroyers, 2 cruisers and the 7th fleet flagship. The USS Blue Ridge followed suit. They are part of the US Pacific Fleet with their garrison HQ @ Yokosuka, Japan.
On board Stennis, Carter was reported to have spoken not of their presence in the region but Tension, blaming China for militarizing the region.
In American language, they call it ‘Freedom of Navigation’ aka. ‘Cold War Mentality’ on this side of the World, you are Capi or Commi.
India’s position, during November, 2015, MOD – Manohar Parrikar – rendez voused with US Pacific Command HQ – Hawaii and later in December, 2015 met up with Carter in DC. The 1st Indian MOD to do so. May even be the 1st Indian non mil. Official.
Joint Exercise & Patrols promises were floated, but have not been operationalised yet and may not in the near future, considering India’s earlier stand on JPs @ Gulf of Eden. India maintains to be stoic singular.
China was on Leave. Ha ha.
However, as part of Diplomatic efforts, to maintain decency, MOD visited China, he was extended ceremonial welcome at the PLA Hq. by his counterpart Gen. Chang Wanquan.
Mazood Azhar’s name was popped up by the Indian side during talks, knowing fully well China would not budge.
During 1st week of April, 2016, China spoked India’s move at the UN Proscription Committee to resolve Mazood Azhar’s as Intl. Terrorist, by placing a technical objection in the last minute.
Followed by the visit of NSA to Beijing. The topic was listed upfront with no favourable colors from the Chinese side.
Diplomatic coup was to come, later in the form of an Uighur, in the fourth week of April, 2016.
India granted Visa to Dolkun Isa, to make himself available at Dharamshala to meet up with the Dalai Lama.
South India English Daily reported with a caption ‘terrorist’ Uighur granted Visa. You find no such caption elsewhere for obvious reasons.
MOD, MEA, chaffed on all sides, left & right and center. Next day’s news could be written by you and me. China frowned, pissed off.
Was it mis-handling as reported in the major dailies. You don’t brag.
We have learnt playing GO. It’s matter of time with the right kind of Government.
Scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours.
As on 12.50 hrs IST, this day, US fleet brings down curtains on Mil. Drills as near as 12 nm off Spratly’s.
Folk music is heard on the Chinese patrols. Folk music is sung by Folk artists, isn’t it.
China few days back denied POC to USS Blue Ridge in Hong Kong.
Smile through your lips. RIMPAC is slated for June & July, 2016. China & US will participate in joint exercises.
China’s Debt challenge continues…
Estimates suggest that in 2015 Chinese Economy grew only by 6.9 %.
As expected the real-estate is stuttering with FSI much available than prudence would require.
Though during April, 2016, the Shanghai Composite rose above 3000 mark with a jump from its February performance, Moody’s as well as Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit rating to negative.
The debt ratio is currently at 250 % of its present GDP, in English, it means China has borrowed at 2 ½ times more than its GDP.
Western Financial Expert Agencies keep suggesting about debt re-structuring as a measure to set right the scenario and accept a slower growth rate. But no suggestion has come forward under the mid-reef bulging real estate scenario.
Worry is a moderate way to put it.
Do not expect any of this in our Newspapers…
My country has a whole State of Tribes. The Lepchas & Bhutias. The State shares border with Nepal, Chinese Tibet Autonomous Region [TAR] and Bhutan.
Two borders are not as much quite as they look. East, the only Kingdom which speaks of happiness index, looks better.
SIKKIM.
When visitors come, speak, listen & instruct, courtesy requires that it’s acted upon without challenge. Particularly when the visitors are aged. They don’t come with cavalry but with wisdom. Lest I face a white van.
I’m no James Bond. I listened without challenge.
But a conversation helps. Sometimes. Suggestions taken without annoyance.
So I’m back.
yudhampragya 