The days between 8th and 9th Round :
India changes the political status of J&K by August, 2019, with Ladakh now becoming a Union Territory. This’s not internal affairs but have global ramification and the surrounding neighbours taken off-guard. The ‘standoff’ started between April and May, 2020, followed by the Galwan skirmish in June, with 20 Indian soldiers dead and China refusing to give an official figure with Indian estimates at anywhere between 40-45 now revealed by TASS without actually giving out the source of information. But earlier several media estimates quoting some or other US expert went with this number on the Chinese side to 100 casualties. By August, 2020, India made it clear that this’ll be a long haul though earlier reports suggested disengagement at certain specific friction areas with a focus being brought on the Fingers and without the winter on-set being any factor for urgency in its move.
By then, it became clear that the escalation by the Chinese were an outcome of the political developments in the Kashmir and targeted towards the Darbuk – Shyok – DBO Road building exercise and to stall its progress, where in fact the Chinese continued their infra developments on the other side. These theories are uniformly accepted by several think tanks across the World not limited to the region.
On the sidelines, the Border Roads Organisation engaged 12000 workers for completing infrastructure in the Sino Borders. It is known that there is no particular demarcated ‘Line of Actual Control’, hence the Chinese adopt the ‘Hold the line’ tactic not by its usual patrol teams but a larger contingent.
It evolved that these changes in the border did not much impact the trade between the countries, as was predicted by the usual press corps. A symbolic impact was created by the Indian Govt. by banning certain apps.
The WMCC :
The Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC ) was set up during 2012 as a Joint Secretary level institutional mechanism for exchange of information and for cooperation. Several level of talks were held and both sides held their positions with only certain minor symbolic retreats here and there. After the eighth round of talks, the Chinese understanding got clearer that there’s no headway at the Ladakh front, now shifted focus to Sikkim region.
On January, 20th, 2021, the Chinese intruded at Naku La, Sikkim. By now, the Indian Army factored the Gusti style of fighting in hand combat which they perfected with their Galwan Kabbadi. The Chinese army sustained 34 injured soldiers and only 4 Indian soldiers were injured, if such number comparison have any significance at all. Pertinently, even on this occasion no guns were fired but was only hand to hand combat. It has not been reported as to what was the cause for the minor skirmish and what was the goal for the Chinese, but was quickly resolved by Commander level talks. If it is to be considered that this was a limited attempt to change the status quo and test the Indian preparedness, the Chinese attempt were evidently foiled with bare hands. This was particularly significant being in the peak of winter temperatures at the Northern Sikkim border.
The incident was reported in the Indian press only after five days. But the significance of the date of the event was that this skirmish followed the conclusion of Ninth round of WMCC talks on 19th of January, 2021.
The Palm and Five Fingers :
The Palm and Five Fingers strategy was developed by the Chinese, spoken by Mao Zedong as early as 1940, which considers Tibet as China’s Right hand palm and Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh as it’s five fingers. China took it upon itself as a right to liberate these regions. If we are to consider how in history India exercised its hegemony over Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, three of these fingers, there need not be excitement in understanding the present situation.
India using the distrust created on the Chinese due to the COVID pandemic, made several course correction attempts. Evidently, the 255 km Darbuk – Shyok – DBO Road, will lead the Indian Army easy access to the Karakoram pass. With the CPEC benefits slowly dwindling, the heat between the Chinese and Pakis are increasing by the day. Thus, the finger strategy can be quickly cut off by effectively changing the strategy course. India spoke of conferring the Bharat Ratna on The Dalai Lama, the spiritual head of Tibet and thus keeping the Tibet question alive. India will slowly entrench itself also in Hong Kong and Taiwan, thus completing the spiral accidentally set up by the Chinese starting at Ladakh. This’s evident by the August, 2020, deployment of warships at Malacca Straits by the Indian Navy and with the US Navy also deploying its frigates and destroyers. The Chinese raised objections to such presence during one of their WMCC talks with no avail.
Disengagement has started in phases and we can expect a come-back by the Chinese once China temporarily settles with POTUS.
yudhampragya 